How many Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine?
Read more of our recent coverage of the Ukraine war.
ESTIMATES FOR how many Russian soldiers have been sent to their deaths in Ukraine are hard to come by. One of the most comprehensive—by Mediazona and Meduza, two independent Russian media outlets—uses public obituaries and official inheritance records to create an estimated death toll. The last time The Economist reported on their study, in July 2023, the figure was between 40,000 and 55,000. It has kept climbing sharply. Our five charts below illustrate the latest findings, released on February 24th.
Start with the overall figure. According to the new study, the Russian death toll has jumped to 66,000-88,000 as of December 31st 2023. That estimate falls within the range of recent tallies by Western intelligence agencies: the latest estimate by Britain’s Ministry of Defence stood at 70,000. Officials in America think it could be as high as 120,000 (see chart 1).
The data can also be viewed by week (see chart 2). This shows notable spikes in Russian losses during the beginning and culmination of Ukraine’s counter-offensive in 2023, and significant losses last winter, during the battle for Bakhmut. These data do not include the number of soldiers who are missing or those who have been badly wounded in combat. Our calculations, based on leaked documents from America’s defence department, suggest that around three to four Russian soldiers are probably wounded for every one killed in battle. (The ratio of wounded-to-killed Ukrainian soldiers is much higher, between six and almost eight.) The latest death count would imply that somewhere between 290,000 and 460,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by the end of 2023—similar to estimates of Russia’s entire invading force in February 2022.
Our third chart gives a breakdown of the types of Russian soldiers who are dying in Ukraine. (This only uses soldiers who were identified by name, which is roughly half of the study’s estimated death toll.) Although much has been made of Russia’s use of convicts and private military companies (PMCs), these soldiers appear to account for a minority of deaths. Less than 19% of the identified soldiers were convicts, and around 6% belonged to a PMC. By comparison, some 25% were in regular military units.
Soldiers aged between 35 and 39 have the highest death toll, with an estimated 15,000 to 17,000 killed since 2022. But as a percentage of the male population, those aged between 25 and 29 have experienced the highest losses. The data suggest that more than 1% of all Russian men aged between 20 and 50 could have either been killed or severely wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.
Our final chart puts these numbers into historical context. By April 2023 Russia had already lost more soldiers by invading Ukraine than it had in all its combined previous wars since 1945. By January deaths had roughly doubled. According to RUSI, a think-tank, the Kremlin believes that the current ratio of personnel attrition can be sustained until the end of 2025.
The study by Mediazona and Meduza covers only Russia. On February 25th Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion; American officials have put the number at more than twice that. The confirmed death toll for Ukrainian civilians, meanwhile, is well over 10,000, with the true total believed to be far higher. All these data provide a bleak insight into the enormous toll of Russia’s invasion. Mr Putin appears undeterred by the blood on his hands, whether from enemy ranks or Russia’s own.■
Editor’s note (February 26th 2024): This article has been updated to include Ukrainian casualty figures given by President Zelensky on February 25th.
